Franklin Covey Nearing An Inflection Point

I published my first write-up on Seeking Alpha today. The summary of my thesis is:

  • Franklin Covey (FC) is going through a SaaS transition that is temporarily harming its financials.
  • The new, improved business model should become more obvious to the market in the coming quarters.
  • There is upside of 40-80% over the next 18 months with potential for more longer term.

To read the entire write-up, head over to https://seekingalpha.com/article/4084174-franklin-covey-nearing-inflection-point

As of this writing, Wiedower Capital owns shares in FC. This is subject to change.

 

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Peer Group Valuation Is (Mostly) Useless

A company’s value is its future free cash flow discounted back to the present. I doubt any readers will argue with me there. And when you break it down, the two things that determine future cash flow are return on invested capital (ROIC) and growth. So if ROIC and growth are the two determinates of future value, then to have a fair peer analysis the included companies should have similar returns on capital and growth prospects. If two companies have different ROICs or growth prospects then it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison.

Having similar growth potential also insinuates the two companies are in the same stage of their life cycle, meaning they’re similar sizes. So including mature businesses in a peer valuation for a small-cap company is meaningless. When a company is selling for less than its peers, it’s almost always because it has lower returns on capital or its growth prospects are not as good as its competitors. There are a few other factors that play into this as well.
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GlobalSCAPE Inc and Why SaaS Kicks Ass

I’ve been looking at several SaaS (software-as-a-service) companies as of late. In laymen’s terms, SaaS is software that is hosted by the providing company and the customer pays a regular subscription fee to use it (as opposed to purchasing the software up front for a one-time fee and hosting the software themselves). If you were to write down a list of characteristics you seek in investments, I bet the typical SaaS company checks off most items on your list. GlobalSCAPE Inc (GSB, $4.10) is one such company that possesses the following:

  1. 95% gross margins
  2. Free cash flow margins around 15%
  3. Over 100% returns on capital
  4. Over 50% of revenue is recurring
  5. Good visibility into future revenue
  6. Little to no customer concentration (no one over 10% of revenues)

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